Impact of omitting annual reviews for COPD on patient reported care quality- outcomes from the Asthma+Lung COPD patient passport.

BACKGROUND: Regular clinical reviews of people with COPD provide an opportunity to optimise management and are recommended in national and international guidelines. However, there are limited data about the relationship between having an annual review and other aspects of care quality, which might influence decision-making by healthcare professionals and commissioners. METHOD: Using data from 74 827 people with COPD completing the Asthma+Lung UK COPD Patient Passport, between 2014 and 2022, we conducted adjusted logistic regression (adjusting for year) and compared receipt of key items of care between those reporting that they had had an annual review (65.3%) and those who did not (34.7%). To further capture patient experience, we also analysed 4228 free-text responses to the 2021 Asthma+Lung UK annual COPD survey to the question 'What is the one thing that could improve your COPD care?' RESULTS: We found that the absence of an annual review was associated with significantly worse COPD care across all domains studied; in particular, inhaler training (yes: 80.8% vs no: 38.4%, adjusted OR (AOR): 8.18, 95% CI (7.89 to 8.47), having a written care plan (89.6% vs 56.9%, AOR 6.68 (95% CI 6.35 to 7.05) and medication knowledge (72.6% vs 33.6%, AOR 5.73 (95% CI 5.51 to 5.96). Thematic analysis of the 2021 COPD survey responses identified three areas to improve care: (1) access and support from healthcare services, (2) improved treatment effectiveness and (3) interaction between COPD and the social environment. DISCUSSION: Failure to deliver annual COPD reviews is associated with worse patient-reported experience of care quality. In parallel, people with COPD express a desire for greater support and access to healthcare services.

Changes in diet and physical activity following a community-wide pilot intervention to tackle childhood obesity in a deprived inner-London ward.

BACKGROUND: Local authorities in England have an important role in shaping healthy local environments contributing to childhood obesity. This study examined changes in diet and physical activity in primary school children following a three-year, complex, community-based intervention in Golborne ward, the second most deprived ward in London. METHODS: The Go-Golborne intervention aimed to shape the local environment across multiple settings with the engagement of a large number of local government and community stakeholders in a joint approach. Activities focused on six co-created themes to make changes to local environments and reduce sugary snacks and beverage consumption, increase fruit and vegetable intake, promote healthy snacks, increase active play and travel, and reduce screen time. We analysed changes in self-reported diet and physical activity, collected annually between 2016 and 2019, from 1,650 children aged 6-11 years through six local schools, who all received the intervention. We used multilevel, linear and logistic random-slope regression models adjusted for time on study, baseline age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation quintile, school, and baseline weight status. RESULTS: After three years of follow-up, there were reductions in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption (adjusted beta -0·43 occasions/day, 95% CI -0·55 to -0·32), fruit and vegetable consumption (adjusted beta -0.22 portions, 95% CI -0.44 to 0.001) and car travel to and from school (adjusted OR 0·19, 95% CI 0·06 to 0·66), while screen time increased (high versus moderate/low: OR 2·30, 95% CI 1·36 to 3·90). For other behavioural outcomes, there was no statistically significant evidence of changes. CONCLUSION: Local authorities have substantial powers to make positive changes to the obesogenic environment but programmes remain under-evaluated. Results from the ambitious Go-Golborne intervention demonstrated mixed results in health behaviours following programme implementation. These results underline the importance of a coordinated and comprehensive policy response to support changes in wider environmental and social conditions as well as appropriate and holistic evaluations of initiatives to inform local actions on obesogenic environments.

Lung Disease and Social Justice: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease as a Manifestation of Structural Violence.

Lung health, the development of lung disease, and how well a person with lung disease is able to live all depend on a wide range of societal factors. These systemic factors that adversely affect people and cause injustice can be thought of as "structural violence." To make the causal processes relating to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) more apparent, and the responsibility to interrupt or alleviate them clearer, we have developed a taxonomy to describe this. It contains five domains: 1) avoidable lung harms (processes impacting lung development, processes that disadvantage lung health in particular groups across the life course), 2) diagnostic delay (healthcare factors; norms and attitudes that mean COPD is not diagnosed in a timely way, denying people with COPD effective treatment), 3) inadequate COPD care (ways in which the provision of care for people with COPD falls short of what is needed to ensure they are able to enjoy the best possible health, considered as healthcare resource allocation and norms and attitudes influencing clinical practice), 4) low status of COPD (ways COPD as a condition and people with COPD are held in less regard and considered less of a priority than other comparable health problems), and 5) lack of support (factors that make living with COPD more difficult than it should be, i.e., socioenvironmental factors and factors that promote social isolation). This model has relevance for policymakers, healthcare professionals, and the public as an educational resource to change clinical practices and priorities and stimulate advocacy and activism with the goal of the elimination of COPD.

Association between the implementation of standardised tobacco packaging legislation and illicit tobacco and cross-border purchasing in England: a time-series analysis between 2012 and 2020.

BACKGROUND: In May 2016, the UK announced standardising packaging legislation for tobacco products. There was a 12-month transition period with both branded and standardised packs on the market until May 2017. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the implementation of standardised packaging in England was associated with changes in illicit tobacco and cross-border purchasing. METHODS: We used Smoking Toolkit Study data covering the time period from 2012 to 2020. We ran time-series analysis using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variable models to investigate the monthly changes in illicit tobacco and cross-border purchasing in England. The model was adjusted for other tobacco control policies implemented during the relevant time period and tobacco pricing. We used May 2017 as an implementation point and run sensitivity analysis using July 2016 and February 2017 as alternative implementation points given phased introduction of the policy. RESULTS: The average prevalence of illicit tobacco and cross-border purchasing in the past 6 months was 14.4%. The implementation of standardised tobacco packaging legislation was associated with a monthly decline in illicit tobacco and cross-border purchases after May 2017 by 0.16% per month (beta=-0.158, 95% CI -0.270 to -0.046). The results were robust to considering different implementation points for the policy (July 2016: beta=-0.109, 95% CI -0.213 to -0.005; February 2017: beta=-0.141, 95% CI -0.245 to -0.036). CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to the tobacco industry's argument that the legislation would lead to an increase in the illicit tobacco and cross-border market, this study demonstrates that the implementation of the policy is associated with a decline in illicit tobacco and cross-border purchases in England.

Socio-economic inequalities in smoking and drinking in adolescence: Assessment of social network dynamics.

AIMS: We investigated whether (1) adolescents selected friends with a similar socio-economic status (SES), (2) smoking and alcohol consumption spread in networks and (3) the exclusion of non-smokers or non-drinkers differed between SES groups. DESIGN: This was a longitudinal study using stochastic actor-oriented models to analyze complete social network data over three waves. SETTING: Eight Hungarian secondary schools with socio-economically diverse classes took part. PARTICIPANTS: This study comprised 232 adolescents aged between 14 and 15 years in the first wave. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported smoking behavior, alcohol consumption behavior and friendship ties were measured. SES was measured based upon entitlement to an income-tested regular child protection benefit. FINDINGS: Non-low-SES adolescents were most likely to form friendships with peers from their own SES group [odds ratio (OR) = 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02-1.11]. Adolescents adjusted their smoking behavior (OR = 24.05, 95% CI = 1.27-454.86) but not their alcohol consumption (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 0.62-4.39) to follow the behavior of their friends. Smokers did not differ from non-smokers in the likelihood of receiving a friendship nomination (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.87-1.10), regardless of their SES. Alcohol consumers received significantly more friendship nominations than non-consumers (OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.01-1.33), but this association was not significantly different according to SES. CONCLUSIONS: Hungarian adolescents appear to prefer friendships within their own socio-economic status group, and smoking and alcohol consumption spread within those friendship networks. Socio-economic groups do not differ in the extent to which they encourage smoking or alcohol consumption.

Immediate smoking cessation support during lung cancer screening: long-term outcomes from two randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Immediate smoking cessation interventions delivered alongside targeted lung health checks (TLHCs) to screen for lung cancer increase self-reported abstinence at 3 months. The impact on longer term, objectively confirmed quit rates remains to be established. METHODS: We followed up participants from two clinical trials in people aged 55-75 years who smoked and took part in a TLHC. These randomised participants in the TLHC by day of attendance to either usual care (UC) (signposting to smoking cessation services) or an offer of immediate smoking cessation support including pharmacotherapy. In the QuLIT1 trial, this was delivered face to face and in QuLIT2, it was delivered remotely. Follow-up was conducted 12 months after the TLHC by telephone interview with subsequent biochemical verification of smoking cessation using exhaled CO. RESULTS: 430 people were enrolled initially (115 in QuLIT1 and 315 in QuLIT2), with 4 deaths before 12 months leaving 426 (62.1±5.27 years old and 48% women) participants for analysis. At 12 months, those randomised to attend on smoking cessation support intervention days had higher quit rates compared with UC adjusted for age, gender, deprivation, and which trial they had been in; self-reported 7-day point prevalence (20.0% vs 12.8%; adjusted OR (AOR)=1.78; 95% CI 1.04 to 2.89) and CO-verified quits (12.1% vs 4.7%; AOR=2.97; 95% CI 1.38 to 6.90). Those in the intervention arm were also more likely to report having made a quit attempt (30.2% vs UC 18.5%; AOR 1.90; 95% CI 1.15 to 3.15). CONCLUSION: Providing immediate smoking cessation support alongside TLHC increases long term, biochemically confirmed smoking abstinence. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN12455871.

Impact of health risk factors on healthcare resource utilization, work-related outcomes and health-related quality of life of Australians: a population-based longitudinal data analysis.

Background: Health risk factors, including smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, overweight, obesity, and insufficient physical activity, are major contributors to many poor health conditions. This study aimed to assess the impact of health risk factors on healthcare resource utilization, work-related outcomes and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in Australia. Methods: We used two waves of the nationally representative Household, Income, and Labor Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey from 2013 and 2017 for the analysis. Healthcare resource utilization included outpatient visits, hospitalisations, and prescribed medication use. Work-related outcomes were assessed through employment status and sick leave. HRQoL was assessed using the SF-6D scores. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) with logit or log link function and random-effects regression models were used to analyse the longitudinal data on the relationship between health risk factors and the outcomes. The models were adjusted for age, sex, marital status, education background, employment status, equilibrium household income, residential area, country of birth, indigenous status, and socio-economic status. Results: After adjusting for all other health risk factors covariates, physical inactivity had the greatest impact on healthcare resource utilization, work-related outcomes, and HRQoL. Physical inactivity increased the likelihood of outpatient visits (AOR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.45, 1.76 p < 0.001), hospitalization (AOR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.66-2.01, p < 0.001), and the probability of taking sick leave (AOR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.21-1.41, p < 0.001), and decreased the odds of having an above population median HRQoL (AOR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.45-0.51, p < 0.001) after adjusting for all other health risk factors and covariates. Obesity had the greatest impact on medication use (AOR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.97-2.29, p < 0.001) after adjusting for all other health risk factors and covariates. Conclusion: Our study contributed to the growing body of literature on the relative impact of health risk factors for healthcare resource utilization, work-related outcomes and HRQoL. Our results suggested that public health interventions aim at improving these risk factors, particularly physical inactivity and obesity, can offer substantial benefits, not only for healthcare resource utilization but also for productivity.

Associations of social media use with smoking and e-cigarettes: a national longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Social media use is high among children and young people and might influence health behaviours. We examined social media use and use of tobacco and e-cigarettes in the UK. METHODS: We used data from participants aged 10-25 years from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (January 2015-January 2022). Participants were asked: "On a normal weekday, that is Monday to Friday, how many hours do you spend chatting or interacting with friends through a social website or app like that?". Specific social media platforms were not specified. Responses were none, less than 1 h, 1-3 h, 4-6 h, 7 h or more. Outcomes were current tobacco smoking and e-cigarette use. Generalised Estimating Equation (GEE) logistic regression models investigated associations of social media use with tobacco and e-cigarette use, and fixed effects analyses investigated changes in social media use with uptake of both products. Models included possible confounders such as age, sex, household income, ethnicity (White vs non-White) and use of tobacco or e-cigarettes by others within the home. All participants gave written informed consent. FINDINGS: The analytic sample included 10 808 participants with 27 962 observations (mean age 15·7 years [SD 3·8], 5080 [47%] male, 5728 [53%] female, and 7868 [73%] White). Current tobacco smoking was reported at one or more timepoints by 929 (8·6%) participants, and current e-cigarette use by 270 (2·5%) participants. In adjusted GEE models, all levels of social media use were associated with greater odds of current smoking than no use. This association was particularly apparent at higher levels of use adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3·11, 95% CI 2·41-4·03 for ≥7 h use vs no use), with similar associations for e-cigarettes (aOR 3·04, 2·11-4·40 for ≥7 h use vs no use). Fixed effects analyses also found increased use of social media to be associated with increased uptake of both products (eg, changing to using social media for ≥7 h/day was associated with >2 times the odds of taking up tobacco smoking [aOR 2·33, 1·28-4·24]). INTERPRETATION: These analyses suggest an association between social media use and e-cigarette and tobacco use. Potential pathways include promotion of these products on social media. Further research with details on specific platforms would be useful as well as with longer follow-up time. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Uptake and adoption of the NHS App in England: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Technological advances have led to the use of patient portals that give people digital access to their personal health information. The NHS App was launched in January 2019 as a 'front door' to digitally enabled health services. AIM: To evaluate patterns of uptake of the NHS App, subgroup differences in registration, and the impact of COVID-19. DESIGN AND SETTING: An observational study using monthly NHS App user data at general-practice level in England was conducted. METHOD: Descriptive statistics and time-series analysis explored monthly NHS App use from January 2019-May 2021. Interrupted time-series models were used to identify changes in the level and trend of use of different functionalities, before and after the first COVID-19 lockdown. Negative binomial regression assessed differences in app registration by markers of general-practice level sociodemographic variables. RESULT: Between January 2019 and May 2021, there were 8 524 882 NHS App downloads and 4 449 869 registrations, with a 4-fold increase in App downloads when the COVID Pass feature was introduced. Analyses by sociodemographic data found 25% lower registrations in the most deprived practices (P<0.001), and 44% more registrations in the largest sized practices (P<0.001). Registration rates were 36% higher in practices with the highest proportion of registered White patients (P<0.001), 23% higher in practices with the largest proportion of 15-34-year-olds (P<0.001) and 2% lower in practices with highest proportion of people with long-term care needs (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: The uptake of the NHS App substantially increased post-lockdown, most significantly after the NHS COVID Pass feature was introduced. An unequal pattern of app registration was identified, and the use of different functions varied. Further research is needed to understand these patterns of inequalities and their impact on patient experience.

Characterizing restrictions on commercial advertising and sponsorship of harmful commodities in local government policies: a nationwide study in England.

BACKGROUND: Commercial advertising and sponsorship drive the consumption of harmful commodities. Local authorities (LAs) have considerable powers to reduce such exposures. This study aimed to characterize local commercial policies across all English LAs. METHODS: We conducted a census of all English LAs (n = 333) to identify local commercial policies concerning advertising and sponsorship of tobacco, alcohol, less healthy foods and gambling, through online searches and Freedom of Information requests. We explored policy presence, commodity frequency and type, and associations with LA characteristics (region, urban/rural and deprivation). RESULTS: Only a third (106) of LAs in England had a relevant policy (32%). These included restrictions on tobacco (91%), gambling (79%), alcohol (74%) and/or less healthy foods (24%). Policy prevalence was lowest in the East of England (22%), North East (25%) and North West (27%), higher in urban areas (36%) than rural areas (28%) and lower in the least (27%) compared with the most (38%) deprived areas. Definitions in policies varied, particularly for alcohol and less healthy foods. CONCLUSIONS: English LAs currently underutilize their levers to reduce the negative impacts of harmful commodity industry marketing, particularly concerning less healthy foods. Standardized guidance, including clarity on definitions and application, could inform local policy development.

Evidence use in the UK's COVID-19 Free School Meals Policy: a thematic content analysis.

Free School Meals (FSM) are a well-recognised intervention for tackling food insecurity among school children. National school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic meant that there was a need to rapidly adapt the delivery of FSM. A range of food-assistance policies were implemented, but it is not clear if they were evidence-based. This study aimed to determine the transparency of evidence use and identify other competing influences in the UK's FSM policy decisions. Thematic content analysis was used to review 50 publicly available policy documents and debate transcripts on FSM policy published between March 2020-2021. This period covered the first national school closures (March 2020-July 2020), school holidays and the second national school closures (January 2021- March 2021). The Evidence Transparency Framework was used to assess the transparency of evidence use in policy documents. We found that overall transparency of evidence use was poor but was better for the Holiday Activities and Food (HAF) programme. The Government showed preference for replacing FSM with food parcels, rather than more agentic modes of food assistance such as cash-vouchers. This preference appeared to be closely aligned with ideological views on the welfare state. With an absence of evidence, value-based reasoning took precedent and was polarised by social media. This paper highlights the need for a formal review into FSM, one which includes a comparison of low and high agentic food assistance policies. Such a review would address the evidence gap, improve food assistance policy, and aid policymakers in future periods of uncertainty.

Patterns of cigarette and e-cigarette use among UK adolescents: a latent class analysis of the Millennium Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Patterning of cigarette and e-cigarette use among young people remains poorly characterized. We aimed to describe these patterns in the UK Millennium Cohort Study at age 14 and 17 years. METHODS: Data on cigarette and e-cigarette use come from 9731 adolescents. Latent class analysis assigned participants to membership of classes of product use and multinomial logistic regression analyses assessed differences in the likelihood of belonging to classes by sociodemographic (age, gender, ethnicity, household income, maternal education and country of residence) and smoking-related social factors (caregiver tobacco use, caregiver e-cigarette use and peer smoking). RESULTS: We identified four classes of use: 45.8% of adolescents 'continued to abstain' from cigarettes or e-cigarettes; 21.3% 'experimented' (used once or in the past but not currently) with cigarettes and/or e-cigarettes by age 17 but were not current users; 19.0% were 'late adopters', characterized by low levels of use at age 14 but high levels of experimentation and current use at age 17; and 13.9% were 'early adopters', characterized by high levels of experimentation and current use at ages 14 and 17. At age 17, 70.4% of 'early adopters' smoked cigarettes regularly plus an additional 27.3% experimented with cigarettes. Corresponding percentages for e-cigarettes were 37.9% and 58.9%. Tobacco and e-cigarette use by caregivers, and cigarette use by peers, were associated with being both 'late adopters' and 'early adopters'. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one in seven adolescents in the UK are 'early adopters' of nicotine products. This highlights the need to develop and implement effective policies to prevent nicotine use uptake.

Health effects of low emission and congestion charging zones: a systematic review.

Low emission zones (LEZs) and congestion charging zones (CCZs) have been implemented in several cities globally. We systematically reviewed the evidence on the effects of these air pollution and congestion reduction schemes on a range of physical health outcomes. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, IDEAS, Greenfile, and Transport Research International Documentation databases from database inception to Jan 4, 2023. We included studies that evaluated the effect of implementation of a LEZ or CCZ on air pollution-related health outcomes (cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, birth outcomes, dementia, lung cancer, diabetes, and all-cause) or road traffic injuries (RTIs) using longitudinal study designs and empirical health data. Two authors independently assessed papers for inclusion. Results were narratively synthesised and visualised using harvest plots. Risk of bias was assessed using the Graphic Appraisal Tool for Epidemiological studies. The protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022311453). Of 2279 studies screened, 16 were included, of which eight assessed LEZs and eight assessed CCZs. Several LEZ studies identified positive effects on air pollution-related outcomes, with reductions in some cardiovascular disease subcategories found in five of six studies investigating this outcome, although results for other health outcomes were less consistent. Six of seven studies on the London CCZ reported reductions in total or car RTIs, although one study reported an increase in cyclist and motorcyclist injuries and one reported an increase in serious or fatal injuries. Current evidence suggests LEZs can reduce air pollution-related health outcomes, with the most consistent effect on cardiovascular disease. Evidence on CCZs is mainly limited to London but suggests that they reduce overall RTIs. Ongoing evaluation of these interventions is necessary to understand longer term health effects.

Changing awareness and sources of tobacco and e-cigarettes among children and adolescents in Great Britain.

INTRODUCTION: It is illegal in the UK to sell tobacco or nicotine e-cigarettes to people under the age of 18 years, as is displaying tobacco cigarettes at the point of sale. This paper examined changes in exposure to display of these products in shops and sources of these products among children and adolescent users over time METHODS: Data from representative repeated online cross-sectional surveys of youth in Great Britain (11-18 years) were used (2018-2022; n=12 445). Outcome measures included noticing product displays and sources of e-cigarettes and tobacco cigarettes. Logistic regressions examined the associations of these outcome variables over time and with sociodemographic variables. RESULTS: Of 12 040 participants with complete data, 10.1% used some form of nicotine product (4.2% cigarettes, 2.9% e-cigarettes, 3.0% both) at least occasionally. The likelihood of noticing tobacco cigarettes on display fell over time for both supermarkets (2018: 67.1% to 2022: 58.5%) and small shops (2018: 81.3% to 2022: 66.3%), but the likelihood of noticing e-cigarettes in supermarkets rose (2018: 57.4% to 2022: 66.5%). Sources of tobacco cigarettes did not differ over time, but e-cigarette users were more likely to get their e-cigarettes from small shops in 2022 (51.2%) vs 2019 (34.2%) (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.24, 3.29). CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence that current policies to limit awareness of and access to both tobacco and e-cigarettes among adolescents in the UK may not be effective. UK policies on the advertising, promotion and sale of both tobacco and e-cigarettes need to be reinforced to deter use among children and adolescents.

Use of Intersectionality Theory in Interventional Health Research in High-Income Countries: A Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: Intersectionality theory posits that considering a single axis of inequality is limited and that considering (dis)advantage on multiple axes simultaneously is needed. The extent to which intersectionality has been used within interventional health research has not been systematically examined. This scoping review aimed to map out the use of intersectionality. It explores the use of intersectionality when designing and implementing public health interventions, or when analysing the impact of these interventions. METHODS: We undertook systematic searches of Medline and Scopus from inception through June 2021, with key search terms including "intersectionality", "interventions" and "public health". References were screened and those using intersectionality and primary data from high-income countries were included and relevant data synthesised. RESULTS: After screening 2108 studies, we included 12 studies. Six studies were qualitative and focused on alcohol and substance abuse (two studies), mental health (two studies), general health promotion (one study) and housing interventions (one study). The three quantitative studies examined mental health (two studies) and smoking cessation (one study), while the three mixed-method studies examined mental health (two studies) and sexual exploitation (one study). Intersectionality was used primarily to analyse intervention effects (eight studies), but also for intervention design (three studies), and one study used it for both design and analysis. Ethnicity and gender were the most commonly included axes of inequality (11 studies), followed by socio-economic position (10 studies). Four studies included consideration of LGBTQ+ and only one considered physical disability. Intersectional frameworks were used by studies to formulate specific questions and assess differences in outcomes by intersectional markers of identity. Analytical studies also recommended intersectionality approaches to improve future treatments and to structure interventions to focus on power and structural dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Intersectionality theory is not yet commonly used in interventional health research, in either design or analysis. Conditions such as mental health have more studies using intersectionality, while studies considering LGBTQ+ and physical disability as axes of inequality are particularly sparse. The lack of studies in our review suggests that theoretical and methodological advancements need to be made in order to increase engagement with intersectionality in interventional health.

Natural experiments for the evaluation of place-based public health interventions: a methodology scoping review.

Introduction: Place-based public health evaluations are increasingly making use of natural experiments. This scoping review aimed to provide an overview of the design and use of natural experiment evaluations (NEEs), and an assessment of the plausibility of the as-if randomization assumption. Methods: A systematic search of three bibliographic databases (Pubmed, Web of Science and Ovid-Medline) was conducted in January 2020 to capture publications that reported a natural experiment of a place-based public health intervention or outcome. For each, study design elements were extracted. An additional evaluation of as-if randomization was conducted by 12 of this paper's authors who evaluated the same set of 20 randomly selected studies and assessed 'as-if ' randomization for each. Results: 366 NEE studies of place-based public health interventions were identified. The most commonly used NEE approach was a Difference-in-Differences study design (25%), followed by before-after studies (23%) and regression analysis studies. 42% of NEEs had likely or probable as-if randomization of exposure (the intervention), while for 25% this was implausible. An inter-rater agreement exercise indicated poor reliability of as-if randomization assignment. Only about half of NEEs reported some form of sensitivity or falsification analysis to support inferences. Conclusion: NEEs are conducted using many different designs and statistical methods and encompass various definitions of a natural experiment, while it is questionable whether all evaluations reported as natural experiments should be considered as such. The likelihood of as-if randomization should be specifically reported, and primary analyses should be supported by sensitivity analyses and/or falsification tests. Transparent reporting of NEE designs and evaluation methods will contribute to the optimum use of place-based NEEs.

Equity impacts of cycling investment in England: A natural experimental study using longitudinally linked individual-level Census data.

Background: Cycling is beneficial for health and the environment but the evidence on the overall and differential impacts of interventions to promote cycling is limited. Here we assess the equity impacts of funding awarded to support cycling in 18 urban areas between 2005 and 2011. Methods: We used longitudinally linked 2001 and 2011 census data from 25,747 individuals in the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales. Logistic regression was used to assess the impacts of funding on commute mode as the interaction between time and area (intervention/comparison) in individual-level difference-in-difference analyses, adjusting for a range of potential confounding factors. Differential impacts were examined by age, gender, education and area-level deprivation, and uptake and maintenance of cycling were examined separately. Results: Difference-in-difference analyses showed no intervention impact on cycle commuting prevalence in the whole sample (AOR = 1.08; 95% CI 0.92, 1.26) or among men (AOR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.76, 1.10) but found an intervention effect among women (AOR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.16, 2.10). The intervention promoted uptake of cycling commuting in women (AOR = 2.13; 95% CI 1.56, 2.91) but not men (AOR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.93, 1.51). Differences in intervention effects by age, education and area-level deprivation were less consistent and more modest in magnitude. Conclusions: Living in an intervention area was associated with greater uptake of cycle commuting among women but not men. Potential gender differences in the determinants of transport mode choice should be considered in the design and evaluation of future interventions to promote cycling.

Strategies to deliver smoking cessation interventions during targeted lung health screening - a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer screening presents an important teachable moment to promote smoking cessation, but the most effective strategy to deliver support in this context remains to be established. METHODS: We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of smoking cessation interventions delivered during lung health screening, published prior to 20/07/2022 MEDLINE, PsychINFO, CENTRAL, EMBASE, CINAHL and Scopus databases. Two reviewers screened titles, and abstracts, four reviewed each full text using prespecified criteria, extracted relevant data, assessed risk of bias and confidence in findings using the GRADE criteria. The review was registered prospectively on PROSPERO (CRD42021242431). RESULTS: 10 randomised controlled trials and three observational studies with a control group were identified. Meta-analysis of nine RCTs demonstrated that smoking cessation interventions delivered during lung screening programmes increased quit rates compared to usual care (odds ratios: 2.01, 95%: 1.49-2.72 p < 0.001). Six RCTs using intensive (≥3 behavioural counselling sessions) interventions demonstrated greater quit rates compared to usual care (OR: 2.11, 95% CI 1.53-2.90, p < 0.001). A meta-analysis of two RCTs found intensive interventions were more effective than non-intensive (OR: 2.07, 95%CI 1.26-3.40 p = 0.004), Meta-analysis of two RCTs of non-intensive interventions (≤2 behavioural counselling sessions or limited to online information audio take home materials such as pamphlets) did not show a higher quit rate than usual care (OR: 0.90, 95% CI 0.39-2.08 p = 0.80). DISCUSSION: Moderate quality evidence supports smoking cessation interventions delivered within a lung screening setting compared to usual care, with high-quality evidence that more intensive interventions are likely to be most effective.

Multistate transition modelling of e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking among youth in the UK.

INTRODUCTION: E-cigarette use remains a controversial topic, with questions over how people transition between e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking. This paper examined transitions into and out of nicotine product use in a representative sample of UK youth. METHODS: We used Markov multistate transition probability models on data from 10 229 participants (10-25 years old) in the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2015-2021). We used four product use states ('never', 'non-current use', 'e-cigarette only' and 'smoking and dual use') and estimated likelihood of transitions according to sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Among participants who had never used nicotine products, most were still non-users a year later (92.9% probability; 95% CI 92.6%, 93.2%); a small proportion transitioned to using e-cigarettes only (4.0%; 95% CI 3.7%, 4.2%) and cigarettes (2.2%; 95% CI 2.0%, 2.4%). Those aged 14-17 years were the most likely to start using a nicotine product. E-cigarette use was less persistent overtime than cigarette smoking, with a 59.1% probability (95% CI 56.9%, 61.0%) of e-cigarette users still using after 1 year compared with 73.8% (95% CI 72.1%, 75.4%) for cigarette smoking. However, there was a 14% probability (95% CI 12.8%, 16.2%) that e-cigarette users went onto smoke cigarettes after 1 year, rising to 25% (95% CI 23%, 27%) after 3 years. CONCLUSION: This study found that although overall nicotine product use was relatively rare, participants were more likely to experiment with e-cigarette use than cigarette smoking. This was mostly not persistent over time; however, approximately one in seven transitioned to cigarette smoking. Regulators should aim to deter all nicotine product use among children.

Use of tobacco and e-cigarettes among youth in Great Britain in 2022: Analysis of a cross-sectional survey.

INTRODUCTION: Although e-cigarettes can be an effective form of nicotine substitution for adults attempting to quit smoking, their use among children and young people is a concern. Accurate data about this are needed to inform debates over policy and regulation in the UK and elsewhere. METHODS: Using data from an online survey of 2613 youth aged 11-18 years, conducted by the market research company YouGov in March 2022, we present prevalence estimates of e-cigarette and tobacco use. We use logistic regression models to assess differences in e-cigarette use, tobacco use and use of disposable e-cigarettes across a range of covariates including age, sex, tobacco smoking status, social class, and country. RESULTS: Among the 18.0% of those surveyed who reported ever having smoked a cigarette, 83.9% were not regular (at least once per week) smokers and 16.1% were (15.1% and 2.9% of the total sample, respectively). Among the 19.2% of those surveyed who had ever used an e-cigarette, 79.2% were not regular users, while 20.8% were (15.2% and 4.0% of the total sample, respectively). Regular e-cigarette use was more common than regular tobacco smoking (4.0% vs 2.9%). E-cigarette use was more common among those who also smoked tobacco, with 9.0% of never e-cigarette users ever smoking tobacco, compared with 89.4% of regular e-cigarette users. Both smoking and e-cigarette use were associated with increasing age and use by others within the home, but not with social class. Use of disposable e-cigarettes was reported by 53.8% of those who have ever used an e-cigarette, and more common among females than males. CONCLUSIONS: Regular e-cigarette use is now more common than smoking in children and youth, though the majority of this is among those who have also smoked tobacco. Measures to reduce the appeal of both e-cigarettes and tobacco to children and young people are warranted.